The New Bitcoin Bull Market
This bitcoin bull market is different from previous cycles.
The fourth halving is central to this evolution. Historically, halvings dramatically reduced bitcoin’s new supply and sparked significant price increases. However, with each halving, the relative reduction in freshly minted bitcoin decreases, making this fourth halving a smaller shock to the market. As a result, we are likely to see more gradual price growth that aligns with underlying demand, rather than the sharp run-ups and crashes of the past. This implies a longer, more tempered cycle. Such an environment will better reflect organic adoption, as institutional and retail buyers adopt bitcoin on balance sheet.
President Trump’s historic return to the White House is ushering in a new regulatory era for bitcoin, reversing the strict capital controls and compliance burdens previously placed on banks. By removing those limitations, the current administration is willing to let bitcoin grow organically within an open financial framework. This accommodating backdrop is fostering confidence among institutional investors, who rely on regulatory clarity before deploying large amounts of capital.
Traditional capital markets have made significant strides in embracing bitcoin. From ETFs that wrap bitcoin exposure into a digestible format to large companies like MicroStrategy that hold substantial reserves in BTC with intelligent leverage, the financial industry is recognizing bitcoin’s potential as an alternative asset. Hedge funds see opportunities to profit from price swings through options and futures, while financial advisors increasingly consider it a viable component of a diversified portfolio. These developments bring liquidity and credibility to the bitcoin market, supporting a healthier price floor than in past cycles.
Still, risks and market disruptions remain. Over-leveraged traders will continue to spark sudden liquidations, while macroeconomic events or pauses in demand inevitably cause periods of sideways price action and corrections within the bull run. Prudent risk management and patience are in order.
Even with these shifts in market forces, bitcoin’s core attributes — a permissionless transaction technology and a verifiably scarce savings vehicle — remain intact. The dual role of bitcoin as both a payments system and a long-term store of value continues to underpin its appeal to individuals, capital markets, and governments around the world. The long-term strategy for bitcoin remains ongoing accumulation.
